Old Time Rock and Roll

Earthquake Alley

They say Oklahoma in the USA is Earthquake Alley – and supposedly it’s a result of fracking!

Well tell me, who the hell is fracking around with our Terra Firma?

Last night we received an unwelcome reminder about why Kate, Maddie and I left Christchurch in August 2011. Evidently New Zealand’s South Island shifted two metres last night. So the earth certainly moved for us in the Shaky Isles – what about you?

Words fail me today – so thank you Bob Seger who of course wrote the original music and crafted far better lyrics in his song Old Time Rock and Roll. Sing along, or dance if you want (that’s if you can stand).

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Just watch those records fly off the shelf
I’ll wait till morning and pick’em up myself
Tonight the ground ain’t got the same soul
Don’t miss that old time rock ‘n’ roll

Don’t try to take me back to Christchurch
Can’t dance there, just hangon an’ lurch
After ten minutes just standing is the goal
Don’t miss that old time rock ‘n’ roll

chistchurch-eq

Don’t like that old time rock ‘n’ roll
That kind of shaking just kills the soul
I reminisce about the days of old
Before that old time rock ‘n’ roll

Liquidation’s sticky as a mango
Three years of cleanups taking their toll

There’s only one sure way to get me to stay
Stop playing that old time rock ‘n’ roll

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

Call me a relic, call me what you will
Say I’m old-fashioned, say I’ve gone over the hill
Today’s land ain’t got the same soul
I hate that old time rock ‘n’ roll

Still hate that old time rock ‘n’ roll
That kind of shaking that kills the soul
I reminisce about the days of old
Before that old time rock ‘n’ roll

dust-christchurch-city-1

Kia Kaha Kaikoura, Seddon, the Hurunui, Blenheim, Wellington, Christchurch and of course Nelson and everyone living in the top of the South  Island and bottom of the North.

Please also be wary and heed the following from Geo Net NZ:

Scenarios

There are very different probabilities for each scenario; some of these are more concerning than others. We recognise that while these scenarios may increase anxiety the best thing is to be prepared. Remember: If you feel a long or strong earthquake and you are on the coast, evacuate immediately.

We’ve developed three scenarios based on what we know so far but be aware that our understanding is evolving as we do more analysis and receive more data. 

Scenario One: Very likely (80% and greater)
A normal aftershock sequence that is spread over the next few months. Felt aftershocks (e.g. M>5) would occur from the M7.5 epicentre near Culverden, right up along the Kaikoura coastline to Cape Campbell over the next few weeks and months. This is the most likely scenario.

Scenario Two: Likely (60% and greater)
In the next month, it would be likely that rupture of earthquakes of about an M6 in the North Canterbury and Marlborough regions will occur, as well as potentially offshore in Southern Cook Strait and offshore Kaikoura.

Scenario Three: Unlikely (less than 40%)
The least likely scenario is that in the next month, (it is unlikely but still possible) there would be rupture of longer known faults (with earthquakes of about M7), in the Marlborough and Cook Strait regions.  

Within this sequence, aftershocks will most likely occur anywhere in the box on the map (see image). It is this geographical region for which the modelling is done. It is important to understand that earthquakes can and do happen outside this box but the box represents the most likely area related to this sequence.

Aftershock Probabilities for the area outlined in the box shown on the map below:
  M5.0-5.9 M6.0-6.9 M ≥7.0
Average
number
Range Probability of
one or more
Average
number
Range Probability of
one or more
Average
number
Range Probability of
one or more
Within 1 day 13 7 – 21 >99% 1.2 0 – 4 71% 0.12 0 – 1 12%
Within 7 days 28 18 – 39 >99% 2.7 0 – 6 93% 0.27 0 – 2 24%
Within 30 days 40 28 – 53 >99% 3.7 1 – 8 98% 0.32 0 – 2 32%

Forecast from 8am, Monday 14th November. These probabilities are for the area within the box outlined on the map below (coordinates -40.7, 171.7; -43.5, 171.7; -43.5, 175.5; -40.7, 175.5).

 

3 thoughts on “Old Time Rock and Roll

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